Sunday, September 1, 2013

What Message Would US Acting in Syria Send to Iran and North Korea?

What is not mentioned below is that the Kim Family regime is studying this hard.  They may or may not take action because of the current situation.  It depends on where the regime is in its provocation cycle (rhetoric and brinksmanship, peace offensive, violent provocation, denial and repeat the process).  The regime is currently in the peace offensive phase and it is seeking to be able to get concessions from the ROK and China through that so it may not be ready to conduct a violent provocation just because the US is distracted unless it determines that to do so will bring it some sort of advantage.

But I believe that the regime is watching this entire situation to figure out ways to exploit US decision making, foreign policy and military actions to its advantage in the future.  Just because our back is turned to north Korea does not mean it is not watching the play on the world stage.
V/R
Dave

September 01, 2013

What Message Would US Acting in Syria Send to Iran and North Korea?

by Scott Stearnshttp://www.voanews.com/content/us-syria-message-iran-north-korea/1741336.html

Part of President Barack Obama's argument for a military strike against Syria is a threat to broader U.S. security concerns in the Middle East and Asia.

Secretary of State John Kerry says acting against Syria's use of chemical weapons matters far beyond its borders.

"It is about whether Iran, which itself has been a victim of chemical weapons attacks, will now feel emboldened, in the absence of action, to obtain nuclear weapons," he said. "It is about Hezbollah, and North Korea, and every other terrorist group or dictator that might ever again contemplate the use of weapons of mass destruction.  Will they remember that the Assad regime was stopped from those weapons’ current or future use, or will they remember that the world stood aside and created impunity?"

Acting in Syria would not only check President Assad, it would show President Obama's seriousness to Iran and North Korea, says analyst Michael O'Hanlon.

"Several dozen cruise missiles, perhaps, and a day or two of strikes is probably enough to achieve the immediate purpose of restoring deterrents of weapons of mass destruction use and hopefully getting countries like Iran and and North Korea to notice as they pursue, or consider pursuing nuclear ambitions that President Obama's red lines to them still mean something," he said.

North Korea has held three nuclear tests and a series of long-range missile launches since international talks on its nuclear program stalled nearly five years ago.  Confronting Damascus now is no time to lose sight of Pyongyang, says analyst Michael Auslin.

"Now that Syria is really heated-up, let us keep your eye on North Korea because they might try to pull something right now when they know all of our attention is focused in one direction, pull something on the undefended side of things," he said.

Syrian troops have reversed earlier gains by anti-Assad rebels with help from Iran and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Using Syria to send a message to Iran may not work as President Obama intends, says analyst Doug Bandow. "To the extent that Iran feels isolated and threatened, in many ways it's more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon," he said.
(Continued at the link below)

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