Sunday, September 8, 2013

AP Analysis: NKorean Charm Offensive About Money

A BFO (blinding flash of the obvious) of course but I am happy to see AP and the NY Times reporting on this while the focus is on Syria.  I have noticed more articles on north Korea during this period of the Syrian crisis, perhaps because of the connection of north Korea and Syria but articles like this are unrelated and help to explain the nature of the Kim Family Regime which policy makers and strategists need to understand.

But I also think that the Alliance 9and the US Administration) is fortunate to have President Park in office because with all the other distractions around the world it is very, very helpful that we are at a point where South Korea can and is willing to take the diplomatic lead with north Korea.  But we should keep in mind that President Park is able to be both a flexible and tough negotiator with the north because of the foundation of the strong ROK/US military alliance.  We cannot afford to neglect that.
V/R
Dave


September 8, 2013

AP Analysis: NKorean Charm Offensive About Money

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2013/09/08/world/asia/ap-as-koreas-tensions-analysis.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1&

SEOUL, South Korea — Spring's threats of nuclear war have given way to a summer of mini-breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula. But scratch the surface and Pyongyang's charm offensive seems more about money than any great leap forward in diplomacy.
North Korea's recent string of concessions, including Friday's restoration of a cross-border military hotline, simply puts the rival Koreas closer to where they were several years ago, before North Korean attacks, atomic and missile tests, and the warnings in March and April of nuclear and missile strikes.
And despite hope that the Koreas will soon resume various languishing cooperative projects, North Korea has shown no willingness to temper a nuclear weapons drive opposed by South Korea, the United States and the United Nations.
Nuclear talks are the goal, but neither Washington nor Pyongyang will make compromises that could smooth the way for their resumption. Pyongyang insists that it be recognized in any future disarmament negotiations as an undisputed nuclear power, something Washington refuses to do. Many also suspect that North Korea's push for the so-called six-party disarmament talks after five years of inactivity is merely a gambit to trade empty nuclear promises for aid.
So while the generally mellowing atmosphere between the Koreas is far preferable to threats of war, the larger inability to settle the nuclear crisis and forge better ties between Washington and Pyongyang means that the possibility of provocations and another plunge in ties remains.
The recent optimism, albeit guarded, is a testament to the terrible state of inter-Korean relations. Whereas tangible diplomatic and security accords were once seen as the measure of a breakthrough, a simple easing of tension is now greeted as progress.
This spring's unexpectedly intense warlike rhetoric and defiant moves by new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may even have prompted pangs of nostalgia in Seoul for his father, the late dictator Kim Jong Il. His 17-year rule at least contained some predictability as he alternated provocations with flashes of charm intended to win aid.
Now that Pyongyang's rhetorical firestorm has died down, that ancient pattern of brinkmanship appears to be playing out again.
"This is about the cash flow," Stephan Haggard, a North Korea specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, wrote recently about Pyongyang's decision to start "making nice" with Seoul.
The Koreas are in talks to resume operations at a jointly run factory park in the North Korean border city of Kaesong. Before Pyongyang pulled out its 53,000 workers in April, the plant brought the poor country a rare legitimate stream of foreign currency.
The countries also plan reunions later this month of families divided by the Korean War, and Pyongyang has proposed talks on restarting lucrative, jointly run tours to the North Korean resort of Diamond Mountain, called Kumgang in Korean.
(Continued at the link below)

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