Quote from Andrei Lankov (who has become the go to guy for quotes on the Korea situation):
“The North Koreans will want to test [Ms. Park], maybe an overland intrusion, an artillery attack, shooting down an airliner – God knows what – and if she overreacts it could lead to a chain of escalations,” said Andrei Lankov, an expert on North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul. “We’ll see newspaper headlines like ‘Korea on the brink of war’ with big pictures of smoke rising and soldiers rushing to the front line.”
Prof. Lankov feels that some kind of North Korean provocation is almost a certainty in the first few months of 2013. What’s unknown is what Ms. Park will do about it when the time comes.
As I have said the key to the next north Korean provocation is ROK military readiness and its ability to "win" the tactical engagement at the point of provocation with an immediate and decisive response against the forces that conducted the provocation. Although perhaps counterintuitive the more rapid and decisive the response the less likely for the situation to escalate. Escalation will more likely occur when the response is slow and targets for response are other than those associated with the provocation. The problem is that the next provocation may not be one that is expected such as a "simple" attack by north Korean military due to the level of ROK military readiness. It could be a provocation that does not lend itself to a direct military response which of course will be designed to not only test but also to discredit the new President Madam Park.
V/R
Dave
ASIA
Plot set for conflict in tale of two Koreas
MARK MACKINNON
IMJINGAK, SOUTH KOREA — The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Dec. 23 2012, 6:20 PM EST
Last updated Sunday, Dec. 23 2012, 6:32 PM EST
This article is part of Next, The Globe's five-day series examining the people, places, things and ideas that will shape 2013.
It is the most heavily armed frontier in the world. But visiting the South Korean side of the demilitarized zone that separates it from North Korea can sometimes feel like a trip to the fair.
At the south end of the Freedom Bridge, which would link the two Koreas if it were open, is a souvenir stand selling “DMZ” ballcaps and fridge magnets, the three letters written in English for the tourists who flock here for a taste of the Cold War. The four-storey observation point that allows visitors to peer into the Hermit Kingdom to the north contains a convenience store and a Popeye’s restaurant that plays bouncy Korean pop songs as it sells weak coffee and greasy chicken. Schoolkids shout with glee from the roller coaster and bumper cars of “Peace Land,” an amusement park cheekily set up within binocular range of the North Korean soldiers on the other side of the border, who likely don’t get to relax much.
The blasé attitude with which South Koreans treat the threat posed by their unpredictable neighbour is understandable. In the six decades since the Korean War ended with a truce, but no peace agreement, they’ve seen it all – from tunnels dug under the DMZ towards Seoul in the 1970s, to armed frogmen who swam down the Han River in the 1990s, and a pair of nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
But there’s reason to worry that 2013, the 60th anniversary of the formal end of hostilities, could be another dangerous one at the frontier between the two Koreas.
Some Pyongyang watchers expect yet another escalation as the regime of Kim-Jong-un tries to force itself – and its need for cash and food – to the top of the international agenda. Some predict North Korea will stage a spectacular military provocation, perhaps akin to 2010’s deadly shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, to force Seoul and Washington to pay attention to its demands.
(Continued at the link below)
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